It’s not possible to get a full sense of things just by looking at the numbers.
But sometimes, the numbers show enough to give some clues to what the deeper issues might be.
For example, here’s a quick snapshot of what the road to ministry in the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) looks like, as offered by Doska Ross of the Office of the General Assembly to the Presbyterian Communicators Network. The statistics, Ross said, were provided by the PC(USA)’s Office of Vocation.
Preparation for ministry
· Most Presbyterians heading towards ministry don’t become inquirers until after they’ve enrolled in seminary. Seminary lasts at least three years, and the inquiry and candidacy process must take at least two. Think: time crunch.
· Many people decide to enroll in seminary without involving a congregation or presbytery. But the rules require that a person under care must have been a member of a congregation for at least six months before coming under care. Think: more time crunch.
· Most students enrolling in seminary have experience with larger churches in the suburbs. The greatest need for pastors is in rural areas and small churches.
· At the end of 2005, the most recent year for which statistics were available, the PC(USA) had more than 2,800 inquirers and candidates (about 700 more than in 1980 or 1990). Of those, 1,394 were men and 1,451 were women. About a fourth were under 30 years old. Fewer than a fourth were over 50 years old. And 483 were persons of color.
· In 2006, the PC(USA) ordained 375 people. That compares with 546 in 1980 and 405 in 1990.
Changes in seminary education
· About one-third of seminary students under care in the PC(USA) system, meaning they’re in the pipeline to become ordained ministers, don’t go to PC(USA) seminaries. And denominational seminaries are becoming increasingly ecumenical in both their faculty and student bodies.
· Many of those enrolled in seminary do not intend to become parish pastors. About two-thirds have not completed the requirements for ordination in the PC(USA) by the time they complete their master’s of divinity degrees.
· The passing rate for the ordination exams is about 55 percent on the first try. The success rate goes down on subsequent attempts.
· About 400 people — an increasing number — are certified ready to receive a call but have not yet been called and ordained. Only about 200 positions are available in the PC(USA) for first-call pastors.
Supply of ministers
· The PC(USA) has more than 21,000 ordained ministers, 13,727 of whom are active and not yet retired. About one-third of active ministers are women and about one-eighth are racial-ethnic.
· Of the active ministers, only 7,674 are serving as installed pastors, a little more than half of the active ministers.
· Just over 2,700 ministers are installed as pastors of congregations with fewer than 150 members.
· There is not a shortage of ministers in the PC(USA). But there is a mismatch between where ministers want to serve and where pastors are needed. Nearly half of those seeking new calls limit their search geographically, looking in from one to three states.
Size of congregation
Nearly half of PC(USA) congregations — 47.5 percent — have 100 members or fewer. Here’s how PC(USA) congregations break down by size:
· 351 members or more: 6 percent
· 151-350 members: 16 percent
· 51-150 members: 41 percent
· 0-50 members: 37 percent
Many small PC(USA) congregations can’t afford to pay a full-time pastor, Ross said. So denominational leaders are encouraging seminary students to think of tentmaking — to find another way to earn a living, and to serve a church part time as well.
