Having been going to GA’s for thirty years and serving on the GAC for five years and as an executive presbyter in the past, I offer to you four barometers of where the PCUSA may be going. I do not think that they will happen as described, but they may. It is much more likely that some of them will happen. By chronology, they are:
First, the choice of a new GAC director will probably set the climate for either possible unity or division. If the choice is someone like outgoing John Detterick (no prior commitment on the divisive issues, committed to the whole church and a true CEO), it will signal that the leaders of GAC are attempting to have someone who will be fair and not committed to a particular outcome. If the choice is someone from or previously associated with the Covenant Network or the Coalition, the leadership of the GAC will signal that they have an agenda and will actively tilt the denomination in that direction. For even if that person seeks to be impartial, she/he will not be believed and forces from one side or the other will inevitably seek to escalate the conflict. This choice will affect all the other indicators. This choice is far more crucial than the election of a GA moderator, because the moderator has little power and does not affect the machinery of the denomination. The moderator can be a positive or negative influence, but that is about it. Past GAC executives has shown their ability to affect climate more than we realize. This will be magnified by a smaller (probably powerful) GAC in the new structure. John is to be thanked for his fairness.
Second, the vote and final disposition of the Peace Unity and Purity Report (PUP) will follow the election of the director of the GAC and will either reinforce or compound the first indicator. While I believe the PUP report will pass the GA, what is crucial is the definitive guidance portion of it regarding on whether local presbyteries can ordain unrepentant/practicing homosexuals if they wish to. If the PUP passes as a study document for reflection and dialogue without definitive guidance, then there will be dialogue and a lessening of tensions. If it passes with definitive guidance that suggests local option, then it will be perceived by conservatives as a signal that the denomination is moving to toward the ordination of practicing/unrepentant homosexuals. The conservative churches and presbyteries will move to protect their boundaries and distance themselves from the denomination. There will be a move for an overture to change this action within two years, which will probably not come soon enough for conservative. Two factors are crucial about PUP. First it is seeking to impose definitive guidance without a vote in the presbyteries, which is legal but would make people wonder what else will come. Second with its definitive guidance, it is seeking a dialogue, listening and healing by creating distrust among conservatives.
Third, if the synod PJC’s review of Redwoods Presbytery’s decision is to allow same sex marriage services, then GA’s PJC will probably not rule on until after GA. Whatever the synod PJC decision, it will create a climate for the GA but it still will be not decisive. Slightly aggravating this will be that the Stated Clerk of the GA will not take any stand saying that he must be impartial, which is true. If the GA PJC rules for same sex marriages then there will be a flood of same sex marriages in the PCUSA, which will almost guarantee the division of the PCUSA.
Fourth, if PUP’s definitive guidance passes as is and presbyteries move to ordain homosexuals and the presbytery, synod and GA PJCs agree that definitive guidance gives them the right to do it. Worse yet it might decide based on PUP that a presbytery cannot enforce its standards upon its local churches. The conservatives on PUP will proclaim that they have been betrayed. About five percent of the churches will leave the denomination immediately. A higher percentage will hang in there, while calling for an emergency GA, which might or might not happen. In any case at the next GA, there will be a vote on the homosexual issues (same sex marriages and ordination of homosexuals), which may or may not stop the hemorrhaging of the denomination. If GA then votes to approve ordination of practicing/unrepentant homosexuals and denies the right of presbyteries to enforce their own standards, then there will be churches and presbyteries leaving to form a new denomination.
Why have I envisioned such a potential pessimistic future, because I feel now is the time for real leadership to emerge to find a way to prevent this from happening. Now is the time for all of us to pray to God for a way to keep this from happening. I also envision this because I do not seeing our leaders facing the crisis at hand. I pray I am wrong.
David Blevik, General Presbyter of Washington (PA) Presbytery
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