I have been thinking about this question recently, as we live through some of the most fundamental shifts in American Christianity and religious participation in general in a long time. In a 2022 report titled “Modeling the Future of Religion in America,” the Pew Research Center predicted that if recent trends continue, Christians will make up less than half of the U.S. population by 2070. Of course, new churches are founded each year, yet in 2019, more Protestant churches closed than were opened.
I don’t fully know what a vital congregation will look like in the future. Still, I suspect that vital congregations of tomorrow (and really, of today) will be measured much more by their impact and relationship with their neighbors, and much less by internal programs, activities, and metrics like worship attendance and membership.
I don’t fully know what a vital congregation will look like in the future. Still, I suspect that vital congregations of tomorrow … will be measured much more by their impact and relationship with their neighbors…
This idea is not new. People have been discussing this shift for years under the term “missional” or a similar concept. When I read the Gospels, I am inspired by the ancient community of Jesus’ followers, who lived in community with and for one another and the world around them.
You get what you measure
Even though we talk about being missional and engaged in our communities, I fear that we still spend too much time worrying about the wrong things. Consider, for example, what we measure about our churches in the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.). We only collect congregation metrics that concern membership, worship attendance and financial giving. Those numbers do not tell us anything about the impact our congregations are having on the lives of people who participate, nor those who don’t attend. As the saying goes, “You get what you measure.” If we insist on measuring numbers that primarily relate to internal activities and institutional survival instead of the change we are making in our communities, then we will continue struggling to turn our talk of being missional into truly transformational ministry.
Related reading: “The future of the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.): Decline, renewal and shifting trends” by Gregg Brekke, Outlook reporting
I spent 20 years as campus pastor at Pres House, the PC(USA) campus ministry at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. There, I often joked that if we wanted to knock our attendance metrics out of the park, we could roll a couple kegs of beer onto the patio before a Badgers football game. We would be the most successful campus ministry in history. While the suggestion is a form of hyperbole, it points to something real. Counting who shows up has very little to do with what is happening in human lives and human communities.
People still want to experience the transcendent and the Divine.
But I’m less worried these days about this disconnect between what we say we want to be about and what we actually measure. I think we are being forced, in a good way, to change in this direction.
The church’s Blockbuster moment
We in the church are experiencing something similar to what Blockbuster and other video rental stores went through in the early 2000s when people changed how they accessed movies. Instead of driving to a physical store to rent a DVD (or VHS, for those of us who remember those), we started getting movies sent to us through the mail via Netflix, which was then a mail-order DVD rental service. Within a few years, we stopped doing even that. Now we just stream movies directly to our computer, tablet or TV. We didn’t stop watching movies, though. We still want the feelings and impact that watching a movie at home provides — but we access that experience in a very different way today.
We are in a Blockbuster moment in the church. God is not shrinking or going away. Some churches will grow. New churches will be planted. Not all churches will close. People still want to experience the transcendent and the Divine. They still crave and thrive in a caring community. They still want to be involved in causes and activities that are larger than themselves and that positively impact lives.
But fewer and fewer people want to experience those things in a Sunday morning worship service followed by Sunday school classes. Our programs, our ways of being church, and our spaces and buildings no longer affect and serve people as they once did. This shift is happening whether we want it to or not.
Related reading: “Aligning money with mission: The future of church space” by John Bolt, Outlook reporting
Blaming ourselves or one another does not help. Imagine telling the manager of a local Blockbuster in 2001 that to turn things around and keep the old model working, they just needed to try harder, put up a new sign, carry different movies on the shelves or hire a new, younger, hipper manager wearing tight jeans. The early 2000s video rental store could do nothing to keep that model working; the social change that led to its closure was beyond its control. Similarly, the only way forward in this time of major social and religious change is to adapt, change and move forward.
The only way forward in this time of major social and religious change is to adapt, change and move forward.
Shifting toward impact and community
I’m grateful for this moment because it can help us move forward as vital communities of Christ followers and finally let go of our Sunday worship attendance and membership model of vital congregations. Let me share three examples of vitality that centers on impact and relationship with the community over internal program activity.
Pres House sober living community
One of my very favorite things at Pres House is its sober housing community. For more than a decade, students and young adults have lived in supportive sober housing, by way of Pres House Apartments, each year. The sober housing community is a small part of a much larger community. It typically only involves four to eight residents per year. But it is truly life-changing. In a typical year, 70% to 90% of residents dealing with opioid, alcohol and other substance abuse stay in school, keep their jobs and stay sober. Students who have tried to attend college multiple times have found, in Pres House Apartments, the community they need to succeed and graduate in the Next Step program. And Pres House has saved the state of Wisconsin more than $1 million in costs associated with addiction. That is the gospel, the good news, during dark and difficult moments. Yes, students meet every Sunday for dynamic worship in the chapel at Pres House, but this kind of connection with the real needs of the campus population most speaks to me of vitality.
A church merger and new community center
A second example comes from outside the PC(USA) — we can learn from others, can’t we? Two congregations – one Moravian and one Lutheran – began discussing how to work more closely together to serve the area of town where both churches were located. Both churches had wonderful, committed members, but their populations and budgets had shrunk over the years. Both churches had aging buildings needing millions of dollars in deferred maintenance and facing rising costs.
As part of their discernment – and through engagement with the Good Futures Accelerator course from PC(USA) – both churches began to see an expanded vision for their mission in their shared neighborhood. They also clearly recognized that they could do more together than separately. So they decided to merge. Together, they became Common Grace Church.
As part of their merger, the Lutheran church sold its property to a development company (of which I’m a partner): Threshold Sacred Development. The property has since been redeveloped into the most environmentally sustainable, nonsubsidized, multifamily building ever built in Madison, Wisconsin. This certified 32-unit passive house (meaning it does not rely on fossil fuels due to its exceptionally high energy efficiency) opened in May 2025. Elements of the previous church building were recycled and incorporated into the new building, giving it a unique character and connecting it to the church’s legacy on that land. The project is 100% equity-financed, and some contractors who worked on it also own part of it.
Related reading: “For a small Charlotte church, selling some land has meant finding its soul” by Yonat Shimron, Religion News Service
Meanwhile, the Lutheran church brought the sale proceeds into the new merged church, Common Grace. The community then engaged in deep listening within its neighborhood and repeatedly heard the need for two things: first, a low-cost neighborhood center space for nonprofits and community benefit organizations, and second, more housing in a rapidly growing neighborhood.
As a result of this community engagement, Common Grace launched the Eastmorland Community Center to significantly expand its programming and ways of engaging the neighborhood beyond traditional church activities. Again in partnership with Threshold Sacred Development, construction is underway to replace the aging Moravian building with a new, more flexible community center that will serve the neighborhood more effectively. The old model was flipped upside-down: instead of inviting community groups into a church space, Common Grace is creating a community center that will be home to more than 30 organizations, of which the church will be an anchor user. In addition to the community center, Common Grace is also adding 26 units of workforce housing to the site, meeting a vital need for more affordable housing in Madison.
Meaningful worship continues each Sunday … But what is truly vital about this church is the way the community is fully engaging with its neighborhood.
Meaningful worship continues each Sunday for this church. But what is truly vital about this church is the way the community is fully engaging with its neighborhood. This vital congregation engages in deep community listening and engagement, focusing far more on expanding neighborhood services than on increasing Sunday services. Common Grace is directly addressing climate change and housing insecurity through sustainable and affordable housing initiatives.
Church as a small business incubator
A final example comes from Alabama. The Presbyterian Outlook previously reported on First Presbyterian Church of Gulf Shores, but the details bear repeating in this context. About five years ago, Chrissy Ennen was called to serve as pastor at the church. Upon arriving, she learned that the church had about three years of funding left to operate the ministry and cover her salary. The cost of the building and other overhead was just too much for the congregation, which had decreased over the years. Costs were higher than ever, and revenue was lower. But Ennen and the congregation were not ready to close and turn over the keys. They felt called to serve their community in new ways — they just weren’t sure exactly how.
So in 2021, First Presbyterian signed up for the PC(USA)’s Good Futures Accelerator course. The church began a journey of listening to its community, walking the neighborhood, seeking God’s guidance and exploring social enterprise. During this journey, members learned that the neighborhood had a pressing need for office and meeting space, which would enable budding entrepreneurs to get started with new businesses. So First Presbyterian invested a modest amount of money into updating its Sunday school classroom wing, where it created a small business incubator space.
Related product: “Negotiating the Coming Wave of Church Property Transition: An Outlook webinar with Mark Elsdon”
First Presbyterian now has nine small businesses operating out of its church facilities, generating almost $100,000 per year in additional revenue. The church has a viable, sustainable budget to continue its ministry. Worship continues — but instead of offering activities that center on Sunday mornings with members, the church has become a central hub of innovation and entrepreneurship in the community, with people coming and going all day, every day. The community has welcomed and connected with many people who had never given the church a second thought. In just 18 months, First Presbyterian built a workable social enterprise in Gulf Shores and centered itself as a valued community asset and place of welcome.
Change as sadness and opportunity
The PC(USA), along with churches of all kinds in every county of the United States, is going through radical changes. These changes are scary, hard and sad in many ways. But they are also an opportunity for us to move into a new future that is more vital than ever.
The PC(USA) … is going through radical changes. These changes are scary, hard and sad in many ways. But they are also an opportunity for us to move into a new future that is more vital than ever.
I love worship. I love church programs. Let us give our best to those activities. But I am deeply hopeful that vital congregations will emerge: communities that stop talking about numbers that mean very little and start living into, and living out, the good news in our communities, one sober student, one housing unit and one community center at a time.
Copyright 2025, Mark Elsdon
